Tag Archives: Mortgage Rate Outlook

Mortgage Rates Stabilize

Ben Bernanke and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shocked markets this week with the announcement that it will continue with it’s bond buy-back program.  This program, known as quantative easing or QE, is designed to keep bonds liquid and to force down yields or borrowing rates for bond issuers.  The net effect of lower bond yields is lower long term mortgage rates in Canada. Earlier this summer Mr. Bernanke hinted … Read More

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Consumer Debt Levels Hit Record in Second Quarter

According to Statistics Canada, the ratio of household debt to disposable income increased to a record high of 163.4% in the second quarter.  The latest figure represents a 1.3% increase from a first quarter level of 162.1%.  Red flags over consumer indebtedness have been the main driver behind our governments mortgage rule tightening efforts over the past 4 years.  Four years ago this debt benchmark was hovering around the 155% … Read More

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Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast – August 2013

Fixed mortgage rates are primed for a .25% to .50% increase over the next couple of months.  The Department of Finance’s policy change restricting the amount of MBS mortgages that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC) will insure is to blame. Without the ability to insure and then securitize as many mortgage assets, Canada’s mortgage lenders will have to resort to more expensive sources of capital to fund Canadian mortgages.  … Read More

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Flaherty Fights Growing Housing Market

July’s strong market results just may have been the latest tipping point for Ottawa and the Department of Finance (DOF).  A new government initiative to slow housing growth is restrictions on cost effective funding sources.  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has already notified banks and other mortgage lenders that it’s putting a $350 million monthly cap on the amount of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) that each lender can issue.  Although … Read More

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Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast – July 2013

5 year fixed mortgage rates are currently overpriced and you can expect to see a 0.25% drop in the next 30 days.  Fixed mortgage rates are priced off of bond yields of the same duration.  Last month the market reacted to comments from the Fed’s Ben Bernanke and bond yields shot upwards by 50 bps.  This reaction was without merit as Mr Bernanke’s comments were nothing new from his previous … Read More

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Variable Mortgage Rate Forecast – July 2013

It’s steady as she goes for variable mortgage rates for the foreseeable future.  Variable mortgage rates are linked to the overnight rate which is controlled by the Bank of Canada (BOC), and the BOC’s new chief, Stephen Poloz is maintaining the same cautious hand as outgoing chief Mark Carney. When asked when we can expect to see rates rise Mr. Poloz replied, “The honest answer is, we really don’t know”.  … Read More

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Spike in Mortgage Rates Temporary

The recent spike in fixed mortgage rates is a direct result of an incredibly sharp rises in bond yields.  I say incredibly because the market grossly over-reacted to Ben Bernake’s comment that the Fed will eventually begin to taper monetary stimulus.  Following this over-reaction, you can expect to see bond yields ease back nearer to their previous lows. Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management Inc., confirms that … Read More

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Mortgage Rates Are Going Up

Last week’s 0.25% increase in 5 year fixed mortgage rates is being followed up with another 0.15% increase effective tomorrow.  You may not see a change to any of the banks’ posted mortgage rates, but the best discounted mortgage rates will be 0.40% higher than they were 2 weeks ago. The sudden increase in fixed mortgage rates is a direct result of Ben Bernanke’s policy announcement south of the boarder.  … Read More

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RBC Raises Mortgage Rates

Rising bond yields have put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates for the past few weeks and RBC was this first to flinch.  As of today RBC increased its 1 year mortgage rate by .14% to 3.14%; it’s 2 year mortgage rate by .1% to 3.14%; it’s 3 year mortgage rate by .1% to 3.65%; it’s 4 year mortgage rate by 0.1% to 3.09%; and most notably it’s 5 year … Read More

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Variable Mortgage Rate Forecast – May 2013

Mark Carney’s last rate announcement came and went without much fanfare.  Variable mortgage rates will remain the same at least until the next announcement date on July 17th, 2013 and likely well into the latter half of 2014. The Bank of Canada’s language hasn’t changed much from its previous interest rate announcement stating that low rates “will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal … Read More

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